The clean energy boom isn’t slowing down. In fact, it’s about to blow past a huge milestone. According to a new forecast from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s installed renewable power capacity is on track to more than double by 2030 – roughly the same as adding all the power generation of China, the EU, and Japan combined.
The growth is being led by one clear frontrunner: solar. The IEA says solar PV alone will account for around 80% of the increase in renewable power over the next five years, driven by cheap panels, faster permitting, and growing demand across both developed and emerging markets. Wind, hydro, bioenergy, and geothermal will fill in the rest. Geothermal, in particular, is set for a record-breaking run in countries like the US, Japan, and Indonesia.
But the story isn’t all smooth sailing. Even as renewables scale at historic speed, the sector is bumping up against its limits: tangled supply chains, overloaded grids, and rising project costs are starting to bite. Offshore wind, once the golden child of the clean energy revolution, now faces a weaker outlook – about 25% lower than last year’s forecast — as inflation, policy shifts, and cost overruns slow things down.
Still, there’s plenty of momentum. In countries across Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, policy reforms and new auction programs are fuelling rapid deployment. India, for example, is now set to become the second-biggest renewables growth market after China, and it’s well on track to hit its ambitious 2030 goals.
Even big developers remain bullish. Most have either held firm or raised their 2030 targets, a sign that despite the headwinds, the long-term bet on clean energy still looks solid.
One area of concern: China’s dominance in supply chains isn’t going away anytime soon. The IEA says China will still control over 90% of global production capacity for key solar and wind components through 2030. That concentration leaves other regions exposed, especially as geopolitical tensions rise and governments scramble to “de-risk” their clean tech industries.
Meanwhile, grids are starting to feel the strain of so much new intermittent power. More markets are seeing curtailment (where excess solar and wind are wasted) and even negative electricity prices, highlighting how urgently countries need to invest in storage, transmission, and flexible backup generation.
Renewables are also making slow but steady progress in transport and heating. By 2030, clean energy is expected to power 6% of global transport (up from 4% today), helped by EV growth in China and Europe and biofuels in places like Brazil and India. For heating, the share of renewables is set to climb from 14% to 18%, as more countries electrify buildings and industry.
“Solar PV is doing the heavy lifting,” said IEA chief Fatih Birol. “But wind, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal are all part of the story too. The challenge now is making sure they can all fit together in a secure, flexible system.”
In other words: the future of energy is already here. We just have to make the grid catch up.
